IOL: Health
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Aids may be shrinking SA's population
By Christelle Terreblanche
South Africa's population may be growing at only a third of the official estimate - largely because of HIV and Aids.
Academics have warned that if the latest figures - projecting a decline - are correct, this could have a negative impact on the attainment of the Millennium Development Goals - as poverty and inequality are likely to be exacerbated.
The latest United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) report puts South Africa's population growth rate at 0,6 percent, indicating a concrete decline for the first time.
The report estimates that the country will have five million fewer people in 2050 with a little more than 40 million people, compared with previous projections of twice as many. The world's population is expected to grow by a third (2,5 million people) in that time.
The country will have 5 million fewer people in 2050
Statistics SA, however, says it is projecting a population growth rate of 1,8 percent. But the actuarial sciences department at the University of Cape Town said actuarists too were basing their calculations on an estimated growth of under 1 percent, less than half of the official projections.
This is in line with other recent international reports such as that of the International Monetary Fund and the UN Development Programme (UNDP), which projects a radical decline in life expectancy for South Africa to as low as 37 years by the end of the decade.
Speaking on the eve of World Poverty Day on Sunday, Professor Allan Whiteside of the University of KwaZulu-Natal's health, economics and HIV research unit said the decline in the population growth of South Africa and its neighbours was unique.
"We've never seen this demographic event in a developing country before," Whiteside said. He said that if the reason for the decline in population growth was that people in their productive years were dying, "that could greatly increase poverty and also make it a systemic long-term problem".
"At the moment we have a chance to move away from poverty, but if you lose people, you have an orphan generation."
According to the latest UNFPA report, most of Africa's population is expected to grow by more than 2 percent despite Aids, with the exception of South Africa, Botswana (0,9 percent), Zimbabwe (0,5 percent), Namibia (1,4 percent), Swaziland (0,8 percent) and Lesotho (0,1 percent). Five of these southern African countries were also rated by the UNDP as among the 10 most unequal societies, while they are also among those with the highest HIV and Aids infection rate.
Ben Roberts of the Human Sciences Research Council said the magnitude of the HIV and Aids pandemic had the potential to "severely undermine the likelihood of attaining many of the millennium goals, including the poverty target".
"Poverty is exacerbated as HIV/Aids reduces household incomes through illness and the loss of breadwinners, and diverts scarce resources away from basic needs," he said.
Roberts estimates that 70 percent of people in southern Africa live below the poverty line on less than $2 (R13) a day and 40 percent on less than $1 a day.
He said there was mounting evidence that the prospects for reducing poverty were worse in countries with high levels of income inequality such as these five states. This painted a bleak picture for South Africa's commitment to meet the 2015 millennium goals on poverty, health, education and equality.
Roberts also questions the appropriateness of these targets for countries in southern Africa, where they may be out of reach.
The UNFPA report does not discuss the reasons for the decline in South Africa, but refers to Aids as a prime cause.
"In countries with high HIV/Aids prevalence, the pandemic is killing large numbers of people in their most productive years, increasing the ratio of dependants to working-age populations and creating a worst-case scenario with respect to the demographic transition," it states.
"For the seven African countries with adult HIV prevalence of 20 percent or more, the population is projected to be 35 percent lower by 2025 than it would have been in the absence of Aids.
"There is also growing evidence that per capita economic growth will be diminished as a result of increasing dependency ratios, increased burdens on health systems, constrained investment in productivity and reduced labour forces."
This is in contrast to developed countries, where a drop in the population growth often contributes to growth.
Professor Rob Dorrington, an actuarial scientist at the University of Cape Town, said that South Africa's fertility rate had been dropping since the 1980s and, along with Aids, would be the main cause for the declining population rate, which he estimates to be 0,7 percent.
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Aids may be shrinking SA's population
By Christelle Terreblanche
South Africa's population may be growing at only a third of the official estimate - largely because of HIV and Aids.
Academics have warned that if the latest figures - projecting a decline - are correct, this could have a negative impact on the attainment of the Millennium Development Goals - as poverty and inequality are likely to be exacerbated.
The latest United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) report puts South Africa's population growth rate at 0,6 percent, indicating a concrete decline for the first time.
The report estimates that the country will have five million fewer people in 2050 with a little more than 40 million people, compared with previous projections of twice as many. The world's population is expected to grow by a third (2,5 million people) in that time.
The country will have 5 million fewer people in 2050
Statistics SA, however, says it is projecting a population growth rate of 1,8 percent. But the actuarial sciences department at the University of Cape Town said actuarists too were basing their calculations on an estimated growth of under 1 percent, less than half of the official projections.
This is in line with other recent international reports such as that of the International Monetary Fund and the UN Development Programme (UNDP), which projects a radical decline in life expectancy for South Africa to as low as 37 years by the end of the decade.
Speaking on the eve of World Poverty Day on Sunday, Professor Allan Whiteside of the University of KwaZulu-Natal's health, economics and HIV research unit said the decline in the population growth of South Africa and its neighbours was unique.
"We've never seen this demographic event in a developing country before," Whiteside said. He said that if the reason for the decline in population growth was that people in their productive years were dying, "that could greatly increase poverty and also make it a systemic long-term problem".
"At the moment we have a chance to move away from poverty, but if you lose people, you have an orphan generation."
According to the latest UNFPA report, most of Africa's population is expected to grow by more than 2 percent despite Aids, with the exception of South Africa, Botswana (0,9 percent), Zimbabwe (0,5 percent), Namibia (1,4 percent), Swaziland (0,8 percent) and Lesotho (0,1 percent). Five of these southern African countries were also rated by the UNDP as among the 10 most unequal societies, while they are also among those with the highest HIV and Aids infection rate.
Ben Roberts of the Human Sciences Research Council said the magnitude of the HIV and Aids pandemic had the potential to "severely undermine the likelihood of attaining many of the millennium goals, including the poverty target".
"Poverty is exacerbated as HIV/Aids reduces household incomes through illness and the loss of breadwinners, and diverts scarce resources away from basic needs," he said.
Roberts estimates that 70 percent of people in southern Africa live below the poverty line on less than $2 (R13) a day and 40 percent on less than $1 a day.
He said there was mounting evidence that the prospects for reducing poverty were worse in countries with high levels of income inequality such as these five states. This painted a bleak picture for South Africa's commitment to meet the 2015 millennium goals on poverty, health, education and equality.
Roberts also questions the appropriateness of these targets for countries in southern Africa, where they may be out of reach.
The UNFPA report does not discuss the reasons for the decline in South Africa, but refers to Aids as a prime cause.
"In countries with high HIV/Aids prevalence, the pandemic is killing large numbers of people in their most productive years, increasing the ratio of dependants to working-age populations and creating a worst-case scenario with respect to the demographic transition," it states.
"For the seven African countries with adult HIV prevalence of 20 percent or more, the population is projected to be 35 percent lower by 2025 than it would have been in the absence of Aids.
"There is also growing evidence that per capita economic growth will be diminished as a result of increasing dependency ratios, increased burdens on health systems, constrained investment in productivity and reduced labour forces."
This is in contrast to developed countries, where a drop in the population growth often contributes to growth.
Professor Rob Dorrington, an actuarial scientist at the University of Cape Town, said that South Africa's fertility rate had been dropping since the 1980s and, along with Aids, would be the main cause for the declining population rate, which he estimates to be 0,7 percent.
posted by Dr Philippe Maslo at 07:55
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